Research: Panel shortage until the third quarter of 2021, there might be an oversupply crisis next year
According to Sinocrystal‘s understanding, panels have experienced a V-shaped recovery after the outbreak of the epidemic last year. It is expected that the supply will continue to be tight in the third quarter of this year. With the gradual relief of component shortages in the fourth quarter, Chinese panel makers have gradually removed bottlenecks and added new ones. With production capacity and consumers “advancing future demand” in advance, Sinocrystal warned that next year’s panel supply and demand might fall into an oversupply crisis again.
The shortage of components is gradually relieved
According to Sinocrystal’s analysis, the 6.5% increase in panel demand this year is actually less than the 9% increase in production capacity. However, due to the lack of components such as driver ICs, glass, polarizers, etc., the supply of panels is unstable this year, and the panel prices continue to rise. However, the development of TFT LCD Historically, key components will still keep up with panel demand after all, and will not be a factor that affects the imbalance between panel supply and demand.
TV demand remains to be seen after unblocking
However, because the inventory of the entire supply chain is still low at present, and the key components are out of stock and cannot be shipped smoothly. Therefore, once the market oversupply occurs, the panel factory does not need to immediately reduce the capacity utilization rate, which will also reduce the price. The decline is not as severe as in the past, but slowly corrected.
Sinocrystal said that after Korean factories gradually withdraw from LCD, in the future, Korean brand factories may increase their dependence on panel makers in mainland China, but they will also deepen their strategic alliances with panel makers in Taiwan, especially in consolidating the supply of high-end TV panels. AUO and Innolux are still very important partners of the Korean factory.
However, the current Chinese panel makers’ market share in LCD production capacity has reached 76%, and in the future, OLED (organic light-emitting diodes) will also reach 41%. Although mainland China has reduced subsidies for new panel makers, they include BOE and Huaxing. Optoelectronics has used the old factory to remove the bottleneck, and continues to have new production capacity, and BOE has gradually expanded its IT panel output, which will also pose a potential threat to Taiwanese factories.